2022-01-20

Six track predictions of 2022 health industry: shuffle, penetration, concentration, integration and competition

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China's medical and health market in 2021 is less thrilling, but it still has ups and downs.

"No. 17606 Wu Meng Chaoxing" left the imagination of "draining the liver and gall", and "70 one thousand needles" rare disease drugs were included in medical insurance. At the beginning of the year, there were still lingering disputes between doctor AI Fen and Aier's Ophthalmology, and the tumor gate incident in April was inconclusive. A number of events in the medical and health industry have aroused extensive discussion in the society.

In the capital market, the financing actions of pharmaceutical enterprises continue, and the impact of IPO events in the whole industry can be comparable with that in the field of science and technology.

The sunrise attribute of the medical and health industry has long been predicted, especially in the era of post epidemic and accelerating population aging. With the implementation of the national strategy of "healthy China 2030", the whole industry will continue to receive high attention.

Shuffle, penetration, concentration, integration, competition

The major sub areas of health care are summarized. Among them, internet medical continues to focus on chronic disease management and one-stop service, becoming the palette of Internet technology iteration and diversified medical services; The head chain drugstore launched multiple mergers and acquisitions, and the digital trend of drugstores is obvious; "Golden eyes and silver teeth" ushered in the IPO boom, and the medical and American industry was heavily regulated.

In the year when the mutant strains were rampant, the domestic vaccine R & D strength focused on "debut", and there were not a few vaccines approaching the market, especially the new crown vaccine and HPV vaccine; Innovative pharmaceutical enterprises flock to the capital market, but new shares are frequently broken; Healthy consumption leads shopping carnival, "health care products" are no longer exclusive consumer goods for the middle-aged and the elderly, and the migration of youth is becoming more and more obvious.

Sort out the above six segments, and deduce the development trend in 2022 in combination with the industry situation in 2021 and the market dynamics in recent years.

Internet medicine: continue to finance money out of the circle

Traffic zone, capital hodgepodge, Internet and medical continue to collide with hormones.

From online registration and consultation more than ten years ago, to pharmaceutical retail and life-cycle health management, the whole Internet medical industry is now stacking buffs.

In this process, B2C, B2B and o2o are still the three main business models. JD health, Alibaba health and Ping An health, all of which have established a tripartite situation.

Enterprises represented by 1 pharmaceutical network have undertaken the B2B model early, and meituan and hungry have opened o2o drug delivery services. The once o2o King jingles fast medicine to survive when it is in deep water. It will still have a place in the market for a long time, and Internet health care shows inclusiveness to all kinds of capital testing the water.

However, Internet medicine has been in the deep-water area, and "medicine" has gradually shifted to "medicine", and medical services have extended in the vertical life chain and horizontal specialized fields.

Cooperating with offline pharmaceutical enterprises, integrating medical resources, accessing medical insurance, opening up all sales channels, optimizing the supply chain, extending medical services step by step, and building a service closed loop of "medicine + medicine + insurance + insurance" are the commonalities of the overall development of Internet Medical.

The new mining of Internet hospital, intelligent medical treatment and intelligent chronic disease management by internet medical rapidly upgrades and leaps under the mutual push of digital technology iteration and medical demand.

To C-end pharmaceutical online retail is difficult to be separated from the platform user accumulation and traffic.

As of the first half of last year, the number of JD health users who had been established for less than two years had exceeded 100 million, and Alibaba health had a user accumulation of as many as 520 million. Nevertheless, the traffic dividend of user C is dying out, the growth of user penetration is gradually reaching saturation, and the growth of the number of platform users is slowing down.

In addition, pharmaceutical e-commerce with internet genes, such as JD health and Alibaba health, can't get rid of the label of "pharmaceutical hypermarket", even if they have advantages in omni-channel layout, supply chain, prescription drugs and self-supporting business. In order to get rid of this common label, Internet medicine should continue to make efforts at the medical service end and payment end.

In the homogeneous competition, enterprises with abundant funds and strong coordination ability of online and offline resources are doing so. Under the guidance of giants, enterprises are constantly seeking differentiated survival. The criterion of traffic is king is no longer pursued, but has turned to a big test of the integration ability of medical resources.

China Internet development report (2021) released by China Internet association predicts that China's Internet medical and health market will reach 283.1 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 45%.

The number of large financing events in the market has increased compared with 2020, and Yuanxin technology, micro medicine and good mood have also participated in a number of financing mergers and acquisitions.

According to the prediction of euro billion, the growth rate of internet medical market scale will remain at about 20% from 2021 to 2025, and the market scale will increase to 62.57 billion yuan by 2025.

Dingdang fast drug IPO campaign was short and failed, but this does not mean that more "Dingdang fast drugs" stop entering the capital market. In the process of forming rings and chains, the next player with differentiated playing methods is worth looking forward to.

Chain drugstores: the scale is 1, and the digitization is 0

Transformation positions, expansion and digitization paths overlap.

In October 2021, the Ministry of Commerce issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the drug circulation industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period, saying that by 2025, it is necessary to cultivate and form 5 to 10 specialized and diversified drug retail chain enterprises exceeding 50 billion yuan, and the drug retail chain rate is close to 70%.

This means that in 2022, based on the chain rate of 56.93% (data in June 2021), large chain pharmacies with strong capital and drug resources and more than 5000 stores will continue to expand on a large scale.

The chain rate of more than 20 provinces and cities has exceeded 50%, including many M & A events related to big ginseng forest, people's pharmacy, and other head chain pharmacies.

According to media statistics, in 2021, people's pharmacy successively launched 500 million yuan level mergers and acquisitions, involving more than 2000 stores; At the beginning of 2022, the people's pharmacy announced the successful acquisition of 17 Shanxi Binhai pharmacies, shouting its first voice for expansion in the new year.

More than just the head chain, the number of medium-sized chain pharmacies like Shuyu civilian, which are newly welcomed in the capital market, is more than 2000. Like jianzhijia, which has been listed for one year, they have local advantages. They speed up the pace of expansion by opening their own stores, joining in and mergers and acquisitions. In the first three quarters of 2021, Shuyu civilian has expanded 413 new stores, a year-on-year increase of 344.09%, Not long ago, jianzhijia purchased Pu'er baicaotang pharmacy.

In the future, towards the target of 70% chain rate, large and medium-sized chain pharmacies will continue to expand their territory in Xinjiang. With the tightening of policy supervision and restrictions on opening stores, the phenomenon of "single withdrawal and chain advance" has become the norm. In the process of gradually increasing the chain rate, the living space of single pharmacies and small chain pharmacies will be further compressed, and some will have the power of life and death, Maybe it will be handed over to the middle and upper level chain drugstores.

On the other hand, the "cash rush" of Internet medicine is bound to be carried out simultaneously with the "online" of chain pharmacies. The digital upgrading of chain pharmacies is not only the inevitable logic of the future pharmaceutical retail market, but also a necessary action to enhance consumer stickiness.

Chain drugstores will continue to improve the business layout of o2o and B2C sectors, and head chain is also preparing for the construction of Internet hospitals; In terms of warehouse storage, supply chain and store operation, chain pharmacies will be overweight and digitized; Under the policies of "dual channel + volume procurement", the growth rate of out of hospital prescription drug revenue has increased significantly, and chain pharmacies also focus on chronic disease management, special drug ward construction (DTP) and the undertaking of prescription outflow.

Consumer medical care: resource competition, integration and penetration

Consumer medical care, out of the "Mao", has a market value of 100 billion, a large scale of users and great imagination.

In December 2021, Yan Research Institute of new oxygen data released the 2021 medical beauty industry white paper. The report shows that in 2021, the scale of China's medical beauty market is expected to reach 184.6 billion yuan, the medical beauty consumer population in second and third tier cities continues to grow, and the proportion of non-surgical medical beauty users has increased from 72.6% in 2019 to 83.1%.

Botulinum toxin, photoelectric technology, medical e-commerce and hyaluronic acid, the "four new inventions" in the medical and American circles, will be further popularized driven by the demand for becoming beautiful. It is expected that the scale of domestic medical and American consumer users will exceed 20 million by 2022.

However, the medical beauty market was once called a typical "sour lemon market" because of its low market transparency, asymmetric information between consumers and businesses, easy to breed industry chaos, illegal employment, false advertising, fraud and other phenomena are still happening.

In 2021, the National Health Commission and other departments will jointly carry out special rectification against illegal medical and beauty services. In the new year, the regulatory authorities will continue to rectify the chaos of medical and beauty services, and the industry will enter a period of rapid integration.

In fact, on the whole, the two major consumer medical racetracks have similarities. The consumer medical market is relatively scattered, with low concentration, and the penetration rate is still at a low level. For example, the "Yamao" Tongce medical has less than 2% in the domestic market, and the penetration rate of China's medical and American market is only about 2%.

In 2021, with regard to medical and aesthetic chaos, it is not uncommon to deceive and harm consumers in the field of Stomatology. Under strong regulatory constraints, although the industry has transformed from extensive development to fine development, it needs to continue to be improved and implemented to improve price transparency and optimize market order.

However, the gross profit margin of consumer medical products is on the high side, the revenue growth is fast, and the number of consumer groups is huge. This is a consensus, and it is also the reason for the emergence of "golden eyes and silver teeth" and "yimeimao".

With the favor of capital, there will be a wave of listing in 2021. At the ophthalmology track, in 2021, Purui ophthalmology, Huaxia ophthalmology and other local ophthalmology institutions sought to be listed, and private dental institutions such as Dr. dental and Ruier dental also submitted prospectuses. YiMeier, the founder of medical beauty, sought to be listed again, and Yonghe medical, the "first share of hair transplantation", sounded the listing bell.

Of course, industries with high gross profit, high growth and high profit will inevitably usher in fierce competition. Oral racetrack will compete for high-quality dentists, and ophthalmology will compete for high-end equipment. The typical long tail industry of medical beauty will accelerate the integration from upstream head resources to downstream, and the competition may become more and more fierce.

However, under the tighter supervision of the market, the consumer medical industry will also focus and cruise from the undercurrent of barbaric growth to an orderly regulatory circle. After all, medical beauty belongs to medicine, and the medical beauty market must realize the quality development, realize the balance between supply and demand, and obtain high-quality medical resources.

In addition, the above areas can not escape the quality disputes between private institutions and public hospitals. Large private chain medical institutions are also gradually becoming large-scale, occupying more markets and expanding their volume.

For example, in the new year, the scale trend of the industry will be more obvious, and the subdivided leaders will further improve their penetration.

Vaccine industry: a year of continuous volume

The tide of intensified vaccination of Xinguan vaccine has not yet emerged, and the bivalent of domestic HPV vaccine has been carried out in many places. In 2021, when "vaccine" has become a high-frequency word, the vaccine field will still be a hot field of public concern in 2022.

In terms of policy, the national drug safety and promotion of high-quality development plan for the 14th five year plan issued by the State Food and drug administration has made it clear that it is necessary to actively promote the provincial drug inspection institutions where vaccine manufacturers are located to have the ability to batch issue the main varieties of vaccines within their jurisdiction.

The market scale of China's vaccine market increased from 25.3 billion yuan in 2017 to 64 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.26%. Novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine will not be included in China's vaccine market in 2022. The scale will reach 89 billion 300 million yuan.

As of January 2, 2022, the number of people vaccinated in the whole process of China's new crown vaccine has exceeded 1.2 billion, and the vaccination rate has reached more than 85%. The first half of 2022 will usher in the period of strengthening large-scale vaccination in China, and the production capacity of Xinguan vaccine will continue to be released.

We know that Zhifei biology, recombinant protein vaccine of Lizhu group and mRNA vaccine of Watson biology are in phase III clinical trial and will be on the market soon.

In addition to the high vaccination rate of domestic basic vaccination, the strengthening of vaccination will also be carried out nationwide. The global war against the mutated strains such as Omicron has not yet subsided. China's vaccine performance will continue to reach a higher level, and the large-scale volume of vaccine will also drive a new round of revenue growth of vaccine enterprises.

In addition to the new crown vaccine, the clinical trials and volume of HPV vaccine and tetravalent influenza vaccine have also attracted much attention, while children's tetravalent influenza vaccine and rabies vaccine are expected to be approved for listing in 2022, and the total performance of the vaccine sector will usher in new growth.

With the vigorous popularization of cervical cancer knowledge in the public, women's awareness of HPV vaccination has greatly improved, especially after the epidemic. Among them, the high volume of bivalent HPV vaccine of Wantai biology and tetravalent and jiuvalent HPV vaccine represented by Zhifei biology is particularly prominent.

In the first half of 2021, the revenue of Wantai biological vaccine sector reached 779 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 8 times, driving its total revenue to increase by 132.78% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company to increase by 195.92%.

Under the policy of free domestic HPV vaccination in many places across the country, Wantai biology will continue to rush to the second and third tier small and medium-sized cities.

Zhifei biology has renewed the purchase agreement with MSD for four price and nine price HPV vaccines. The nine price HPV vaccines of Bowei biology, Kangle guard, Ruike biology and Wantai biology have entered phase III of clinical practice, and the HPV vaccine market will continue to usher in a fierce game.

China's innovative medicine: the involution of civil war and the new blue ocean of foreign war

In 2021, some pharmaceutical industry leaders successively joined China's innovative pharmaceutical enterprises, such as Luo Wanli, former president of MSD China, joined Shanghai Jixing pharmaceutical industry.

In the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, 19 small domestic innovative pharmaceutical enterprises were successfully listed, but many new shares of innovative drugs broke. Even so, the listing boom of innovative pharmaceutical enterprises has not subsided, and the number of listed enterprises may continue to increase in 2022.

According to the statistics of the securities times, at present, 12 applications for new shares of innovative pharmaceutical enterprises on the main board of the Hong Kong stock exchange are being processed, and 10 IPO applications of innovative pharmaceutical enterprises on the science and innovation board have entered the state of "inquiry".

Although the R & D of innovative drugs in China started late, the R & D strength developed rapidly, and soon reached the international level, greatly improving the innovation ability to go to sea.

2015 is a watershed in the research and development of domestic innovative drugs. After 2015, relevant policies such as volume procurement, green channel for new drug approval, tax relief, Ind application acquiescence system and so on have been issued to greatly encourage the research and development of domestic innovative drugs. The R & D achievements of innovative pharmaceutical enterprises in recent years have indeed alleviated the phenomenon of large quantity and uneven quality of similar drugs, and improved the industry standardization.

In the past year, innovative drugs with independent R & D labels went abroad, with independent pricing and stronger bargaining power. Behind these innovative drugs, enterprises with high barrier R & D technology, mature technological innovation platform and commercialization ability are the objects of continuous attention of the capital market.

For example, Baiji Shenzhou, the most internationalized innovative pharmaceutical enterprise, Xinda biology, which realizes the license out of core products, license in, zaiding medicine, etc.

A number of domestic innovative drugs have been certified by FDA and other international authorities, and the number of license out products has increased, filling many gaps in the market. According to statistics, the State Food and Drug Administration approved 76 new drugs in 2021, exceeding the number of 48 new drugs in 2020. Next, many domestic innovative pharmaceutical enterprises will also enter the innovation harvest period.

However, when enterprises can make profits with innovative drugs is inseparable from commercialization and capacity release. The whole field of innovative drugs is also closely related to policy trends such as medical insurance fee control and centralized purchase. How to allocate medical resources and how to adjust medical prices will have an impact on pharmaceutical enterprises.

At the end of 2021, Baiji Shenzhou, which realized the listing of "US stocks + Hong Kong stocks + A shares", broke off on the day of listing. Although 11 self-developed drugs have been in the clinical and commercialization stage, the company has suffered losses for five consecutive years, and many innovative pharmaceutical enterprises are still burning money.

Healthy consumption: high fever market opens and products accelerate iteration

In the 618 and double 11 shopping Carnival in 2021, offline services such as nutrition and health care products and daily equipment, crazy screen dominating and various health examination packages are also rolled up. New cutting-edge nutrition and health brands have explored a new evolution path, promoted by more market segments such as health tea and hyaluronic acid drinks, and the products are more diversified.

It is certain that the purchase tide of health consumer products will continue to rise in 2022.

In the intensive care era, the word "volume" is difficult, health anxiety is rampant, irregular work and rest, high work pressure and other problems have spread to the Post-00 group.

From the perspective of different consumer groups, "generation Z" pays more and more attention to health. The "her health" market of women aged 20-60 also leads the development of women's health needs towards more refinement and diversification. The "other economy" leads the expansion of men's health consumer market again, and the health consumer groups sinking the market also usher in rapid growth.

From the perspective of nutritional and health food, nutritional supplements, sports nutrition and supplements are deeply loved by contemporary young people, and the consumer groups are diversified and younger.

After the introduction of the new health food regulatory regulations in 2016, the industry has been gradually integrated. The scale of the domestic health food market has increased from 148.2 billion yuan in 2017 to 184.7 billion yuan in 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 7.75%. China is now the second largest consumer market of health products in the world.

The supervision of the domestic health care products industry has been strengthened, and the access threshold has been continuously improved. In the future, the industry concentration will be further improved, the penetration rate of head brands will be increased, and the market will gradually become saturated.

Nevertheless, among the top brands, Thomson Beijian, known as the "leader of health products", has a high market share of 10.3%, but its revenue growth actually peaked in 2018 and has been slowing down until 2020. Not only Thomson Beijian, but also the growth rate of the whole nutritional and health care food market has slowed down in recent years.

Of course, health consumption not only includes nutrition and health care products, but also covers many fields such as food, sports, physical examination and so on. In the post epidemic era, the demand for health consumption will grow steadily, and health management will gradually advance, or even become a rigid demand.

epilogue

In the past year, the scale of the medical and health market has expanded following the characteristics of growth in the past decade. For fear that the medical health industry is not lively enough, it is also afraid that it is too lively. With the participation of capital from all walks of life, there will be some risks and failure cases in the integration and collision of medical health attributes and technology, real estate and insurance. However, we can be sure that the changes in the industry will remain unchanged and develop in an orderly and benign direction.

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